Miner Update

Really nothing to update here. The price action in the miners is acting very bullish. Bearish patterns have not been playing out with the same intensity from prior rallies. I believe we are going to trade higher and I think the silver miners are going to out perform. Will be monitoring that as we develop off these lows. I still won't be convinced though until gold is over 1400 steadily before I can really trust this turning into a new bull market. Until then, its just another big rally.I think gold is going to attack the 1340/50 range before we get a correction in the miners.

SA:

HL: Look at that slope of the 2week EMA and the MACD!

Chart Attack

This is probably the last place you'll find yourself for research and market commentary, but I put my commentary and analysis into this writing for myself and my personal trading/investing strategies. I use this forum as a daily journal to share with the world wide web. You don't have to agree with me or trade with me in my direction. That is the beauty of the market, everyone has a different time frame, opinion, need for capital, etc.

With that being said; I bid you adieu to my charts: Happy New Year and good luck this year. You'll need it.


Gold...The best performing currency in 2014...#2 actually. "USD" was better. (due to JPY, EUR weakness)

Gold in EUR: = breaking out

 Keep in mind of these below charts...Gold still has a lot of work to do against other benchmarks before a major break out.

 As far as the broad markets go... . Overvalued and overbought. There are pockets of value still remaining out there. Some solid signal names. If you aren't willing to do your homework and dig around, don't bother investing in the general indices.

GDX/GDXJ Chart updates:

Weekly view: 

SPY: "The market’s price to sales ratio is at an all-time high, the market capitalization to GDP ratio (Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator) is the second highest in history…. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio for the S&P is 27. That level has been exceeded only two times before – in 1929 and 2000."

I'll be looking to post these next 2 charts on this blog until oil finds its way,

I've continued to say that the bull market in gold will resume when a couple criteria are met: 1.) gold and the dollar rise in tandem. This is what we've seen as of late. 2.) Gold regains 1400.  

https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/guest-post-i-have-a-theory-on-the-swiss-franc/

Miner Update

Year in Review. The short version.

The fed influences market sentiment, period, end of story.

I'm not talking about outright manipulation or the plunge protection team, I'm saying that the big money, the money that matters and the big flow; their sentiment, is influenced by the fed. Which in turn drives the shorter term direction of the market. Some hacks on Twitter call this lazy thinking, it's not. It's simple. Play the game they play and you'll do just fine out there.

Another year in the books and double digit returns for the broad markets. If everything is so peachy, then why is the fed funds rate still in emergency mode at 0%? The macro theory is frozen in time as long as those rates never rise. The fed knows this, so can ZIRP remain around for many years more? I saw a long term chart of rates dating back to like 1800 and it showed periods where rates were near zero for l0-14 years. I'm just spinning the wheels here, but i wonder what debt to gdp was during those times lol. If anyone has any data on this shoot it my way! So with rates locked at zero the fed thinks they'll be able to slowly raise rates just so they have ammo to lower them when equities make the heaven forbid correction.
My advice for investors in 2015 is micro thinking, the broad markets are garbage but there are pocket of value still out there, just need to do some digging.
I am not capitulating on my macro views, time is on my side and buying the broad markets up here at these levels won't produce great returns over 10 year period. Maybe if the equity markets get a bloody correction and a good and healthy one, maybe I'd resume my allocations.

I was wrong in 2014, and that just gave me more time to accumulate. I anticipate another choppy, non directional move in 2015 in the precious metal arena with modest gains when all said and done.

The theory continues to be; resumption of the bull market in tandem with a strong dollar will be the tell. I want to see the PMs and gold rise together similar to the start of this market in  1999. On top of that the big $$ will be sidelined until 1400 is taken out and held.

Until then. I remain on course.

No charts on this review.  Will post a chart attack update early in the new year.

Have a Happy New Year.

Market is Talking

Time to begin looking for the exits in the domestic equity markets. Something is a 'brewing.   I have a slew of data and back up supporting my current view of running for the hills; if you haven't already. The move in oil and the recent price action in the commodities market (oil down 40% or so in 3 months),  the past few days in the precious metals market ; -10% then up 15% in silver in 3 days. The market is giving its signals; (what's left after the Fed has taken every other signal away).  Seasonally speaking; December is very rarely a 'crash/correction/pull back' month; positioning, year end, bonuses, etc. Money managers won't go making large changes or take on any additional positions that aren't in a confirmed uptrend.  I think the individual investor can make some excellent moves during this time because we are not constrained by SEC reporting, holdings and meeting quarterly benchmarks. 

I'll be posting more charts over the next two days or so on here;

For starters; on my India call; check out the visual of these ratios: stockcharts.com (type them in; or copy and paste)

ewz:eem
rsx:eem
indy:eem
fxi:eem
eza:eem

Which one looks better? That's right. Get long, get strong. BTFD.

To be continued:

Still listening

The markets are quiet. Investors have been lulled back to sleep after the bear raid. The low volume melt up has been astonishing and yet again record setting. The megaphone (topping) patterns I've been watching are quite astonishing. (Target of pattern is 1740 on SPX). Stay alert. These same patterns are apparent in the Dow and more or less Nasdaq .The R2K is rolling over in its own manor as well. Stay alert.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-12/sentiment-charts-bullish

Check that out as well.

While the easy way is to follow the crowd; because the crowd is usually right; for a period of time. At some point one needs to ask themselves what is more important; preservation of capital or return on capital.

Another good read on the current markets and the over used word ; polar vortex.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/11/12_Massive_Volcanic_Eruptions_Wreaking_Havoc_On_The_World.html


My market views:

I'm still bullish on the miners. That is my bias and my theory where I believe significant value lies. I continue to say accumulate. I don't see any major sustainable moves higher to begin until gold is above 1400. I've said this many times and I still continue to see that as the level that will entice big money back into this market.

I'm still bearish the broad markets. The risk reward is not there to be long unless your a money manager forced to meet your benchmarks (article attached). It makes sense.

I'm still bullish on India big time. With Modi's presidency and the growing middle class. You have to be long time accumulator of Indian shares.

I'd like to begin buying these nat gas related shares on dips. (EOG).


Still believe the market is topping here which will take some more time to mature. Signs continue to mature.


The quality over crap ratio (LQD:HYG) continues to trend higher since the turn of this year.

It's been noted that when Dow outperforms; the ending stages of a bull market are nigh.

Step back and listen...to the market.

The bear case hasn't changed for me. Nothing has changed from what I have been posting and talking about in regards to the fundamental flaws of the forecasts the equity markets are depicting.  For now, I'm listening to what the market is saying;

Case Study: Action around the 200dma

2008: Market participants were well warned

2010- 200dma flattening after having a hissy fit QE1 was ending.

2011 Debt Downgrade

2012- QE2 ending? (I forget)

#Levitation of 2014. The plunge through the 200dma on 3 large distribution days.  The flattening of the 200day is most likely going to take us through the year into next year possibly. Trading ranges will be defined by percentage band above/below the 50/200.

With that in mind; sit tight and be prepared for volatility as the liquidity shows up around the 200 and participants begin to jockey for next direction.