As the month turns...

QQQ - remains in bull mode until a weekly close below 97.40

IWM - neutral. consolidating or topping. 108 (112 is 200EMA) to 120 trading range until one or the other is broken.

SPY - Well, we know the CB's are actively involved in trading SPOO's and intervention in the equity markets is part of the Fed's wealth effect plan. They think that if people see markets higher they will go out and spend. How baffling is that; intervening in the free capital markets to try and induce consumption. When the tide goes out; we'll see who has been swimming naked.  Also just observing the 200EMA vs. the 200SMA.

GDX - Over 27.50 and we'll have momentum to the upside. I'm an accumulator here. But safer play is to just wait for the market to confirm.

GDXJ- Over 45; same as above. 18+ months of basing.

GOLD - Best described by this tweet. Courtesy of +Eyal Kidron   Wait for a new directional move.

Commodities - Long DJP for a counter trend move back to 38+  Confluence of : (200day SMA) (20/40EMA) as well as the positioning of the underlying basket of the DJP are all setting up for a move higher. 

EEM - Long and strong; with a close eye.

Volatility - wise to have a small position here. IMO at least; for what that's worth. Any morning you could wake up and have a volatility shock; whether it geopolitical, or just a psychological level in the Dow/S+P breached to downside can send price of protection higher. With volatility, you need to anticipate the move or be in and out very quickly as it occurs. VXX/ ZIV work both ways nicely.

Thoughts going into final stretch of the year

The July- August Summer doldrums took the broad equity markets to new highs on laughable volume. New highs are new highs. Confidence reins supreme until one day it doesn't. I prefer to accumulate undervalued, unloved sectors of the market in anticipation for future moves.

"Buy when everyone is selling, hold when everyone is buying"


The next few charts and thoughts will be on the gold/silver mining complex, gold/silver, commodity complex (DJP ETF tracks the CCI/CRB index), long bonds and volatility. In a nut shell; get long the aforementioned asset classes going into the home stretch of the year.

Gold/Silver and the Shares:

. These asset classes I prefer to accumulate using the dips in core accounts. The rallies and dips can be traded for sure; but with the noise in the daily movement in the gold market has we transition from bear to bull can be daunting and confusing. Keep your eye on the prize.


The Long Bond: Do you really think the Fed can raise rates? GTFO; I don't think they can or will; neither does the Bond market.

Volatility; Art Cashin warned that low volume melt up summers going into September do not favor the bulls. Volatility is going to pick up IMO has the real money comes back from their summer vacations. Combined with the low volume ramp; we have a slew of geopolitical scenarios that can ignite at any time. A small position in Vol is a pretty good idea to protect core accounts.

(Got long Vol at the red circle)

Nasdaq/S+P : Eyeing possible topping formations that may lead to..dare I say...a correction greater than 6%! Heaven forbid. 

Buy the bloody Dips

Not in the broad indices though.

I'm going to keep posting examples like this fine specimen. The market is going to have no choice but to move these loathed stocks higher if companies keep pushing down costs and gold stays flat/up. This is what we seen over the past few quarters. Then once gold finally breaches 1400 and people aren't so afraid anymore of the constant taunt of lower prices from the some of the big banks, you're going to see these stocks climbing fast out of a deep dark 2+ year bear market.

Feature Stock of the Week (GTAT)

The fundamentals tell the story, the charts and technicals help tell it.

This post on GTAT will be purely technical. (comments on the charts). Enjoy.

 Starting out with the Monthly lense:

Daily:

Weekly:

Monitoring Developments

This weekends post will focus mostly on the usual, gold and gold stocks.

Other notes that are not on the chart above are that I'm watching are:

- the fact that Friday's power close brought us also above the 50SMA (a highly watched moving average).
-Monthly indicators are all in buy signals.
-Above the 3 monthly EMA's I use.
- The last time we had a move higher, it was stair stepping, which was then returned by the bear with the elevator down. This time I'm noting different bull patterns; aligned with where the monthly indicators are positioned....is this time different? Will we break and close over that march high and run the 55. I think so.



It doesn't surprise me that the negative short term technical are being ignored and seeing dip buying show up when you'd least expect it. To me, this shows that smart money has eyes on the longer term big picture for this depressed and left for dead sector.

I will do my monthly review as we turn the calendar into August next weekend. For now, we have a big data dump next week.


Here's an opposite view point of mine for comparison:

http://thedailygold.com/weakness-ahead-miners/

Looks like he did his charting prematurely on Friday based on the candles shown on his charts. We'll see who is right. I could see my bull flag making one more leg down, which is why I am monitoring this development closely.

nine teen seventy somethang

Funny how that song would come on as I'm reviewing some charts. (Reference to 70s correlation):

(Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick sent King World News four incredibly important charts)

Then you have the ratio of gold stocks to gold. You want to own miners when this ratio is outperforming. Today's close was nice to see the dip being bought into Friday and into big gains in the broad market. 

Steady F***ing Eddy

Steady Eddy; for any new readers; is the 30 weak moving average. A few weeks ago we had a fake break below it and a break back above on the big 3% day which I tweeted about as we crossed 1285. Anywho; the second chart is the Gold to Silver ratio. My two beliefs are this; we won't get the sustained rally I'm waiting for until gold is over 1400 and the gold to silver ratio is in a confirmed down trend. (i.e. Silver outperforming gold).  We are getting there. I'm an aggressive trader; so I'll take the risk of entering set ups and trades before the trend is confirmed. Stop losses and position sizing are ESSENTIAL as an aggressive trader. 

And just remember, the bigger picture is suggesting much higher prices; so to see the reversal and dip buying action shouldn't come as a shock. I did book some gains and am going to be re-entering in larger size going forward. 

Check the prior posts for the longer picture, to lazy to post the hyperlinks on this one. 

Alright, enough of the miners/gold.

The short on the Biotechs has been playing out exceptionally well.

Everything needed for further downside is in place by what I see. I used today's morning random fucking bounce back to fill the down gap to add to my short.

When what I see goes how I see, I never have enough money or size on. #Trading #Patience

We should revisit the QQQ's and the Spoos. But I know where they are going, and it's down. I just can't even imagine what foolish dip buying could happen with those two. So for now, i'll just monitor day by day to see what kind of levels we can crack through.

Taking advantage of others fears and scooped some vol products in the premarket today. Turned out I timed that well.

Stay tuned for more, expecting more risk off tomorrow.