Year in Review. The short version.

The fed influences market sentiment, period, end of story.

I'm not talking about outright manipulation or the plunge protection team, I'm saying that the big money, the money that matters and the big flow; their sentiment, is influenced by the fed. Which in turn drives the shorter term direction of the market. Some hacks on Twitter call this lazy thinking, it's not. It's simple. Play the game they play and you'll do just fine out there.

Another year in the books and double digit returns for the broad markets. If everything is so peachy, then why is the fed funds rate still in emergency mode at 0%? The macro theory is frozen in time as long as those rates never rise. The fed knows this, so can ZIRP remain around for many years more? I saw a long term chart of rates dating back to like 1800 and it showed periods where rates were near zero for l0-14 years. I'm just spinning the wheels here, but i wonder what debt to gdp was during those times lol. If anyone has any data on this shoot it my way! So with rates locked at zero the fed thinks they'll be able to slowly raise rates just so they have ammo to lower them when equities make the heaven forbid correction.
My advice for investors in 2015 is micro thinking, the broad markets are garbage but there are pocket of value still out there, just need to do some digging.
I am not capitulating on my macro views, time is on my side and buying the broad markets up here at these levels won't produce great returns over 10 year period. Maybe if the equity markets get a bloody correction and a good and healthy one, maybe I'd resume my allocations.

I was wrong in 2014, and that just gave me more time to accumulate. I anticipate another choppy, non directional move in 2015 in the precious metal arena with modest gains when all said and done.

The theory continues to be; resumption of the bull market in tandem with a strong dollar will be the tell. I want to see the PMs and gold rise together similar to the start of this market in  1999. On top of that the big $$ will be sidelined until 1400 is taken out and held.

Until then. I remain on course.

No charts on this review.  Will post a chart attack update early in the new year.

Have a Happy New Year.

Market is Talking

Time to begin looking for the exits in the domestic equity markets. Something is a 'brewing.   I have a slew of data and back up supporting my current view of running for the hills; if you haven't already. The move in oil and the recent price action in the commodities market (oil down 40% or so in 3 months),  the past few days in the precious metals market ; -10% then up 15% in silver in 3 days. The market is giving its signals; (what's left after the Fed has taken every other signal away).  Seasonally speaking; December is very rarely a 'crash/correction/pull back' month; positioning, year end, bonuses, etc. Money managers won't go making large changes or take on any additional positions that aren't in a confirmed uptrend.  I think the individual investor can make some excellent moves during this time because we are not constrained by SEC reporting, holdings and meeting quarterly benchmarks. 

I'll be posting more charts over the next two days or so on here;

For starters; on my India call; check out the visual of these ratios: stockcharts.com (type them in; or copy and paste)

ewz:eem
rsx:eem
indy:eem
fxi:eem
eza:eem

Which one looks better? That's right. Get long, get strong. BTFD.

To be continued: