Monday, September 1, 2014

As the month turns...

QQQ - remains in bull mode until a weekly close below 97.40

IWM - neutral. consolidating or topping. 108 (112 is 200EMA) to 120 trading range until one or the other is broken.

SPY - Well, we know the CB's are actively involved in trading SPOO's and intervention in the equity markets is part of the Fed's wealth effect plan. They think that if people see markets higher they will go out and spend. How baffling is that; intervening in the free capital markets to try and induce consumption. When the tide goes out; we'll see who has been swimming naked.  Also just observing the 200EMA vs. the 200SMA.

GDX - Over 27.50 and we'll have momentum to the upside. I'm an accumulator here. But safer play is to just wait for the market to confirm.

GDXJ- Over 45; same as above. 18+ months of basing.

GOLD - Best described by this tweet. Courtesy of +Eyal Kidron   Wait for a new directional move.


Commodities - Long DJP for a counter trend move back to 38+  Confluence of : (200day SMA) (20/40EMA) as well as the positioning of the underlying basket of the DJP are all setting up for a move higher. 

EEM - Long and strong; with a close eye.

Volatility - wise to have a small position here. IMO at least; for what that's worth. Any morning you could wake up and have a volatility shock; whether it geopolitical, or just a psychological level in the Dow/S+P breached to downside can send price of protection higher. With volatility, you need to anticipate the move or be in and out very quickly as it occurs. VXX/ ZIV work both ways nicely.