Friday, August 29, 2014

Thoughts going into final stretch of the year

The July- August Summer doldrums took the broad equity markets to new highs on laughable volume. New highs are new highs. Confidence reins supreme until one day it doesn't. I prefer to accumulate undervalued, unloved sectors of the market in anticipation for future moves.

"Buy when everyone is selling, hold when everyone is buying"


The next few charts and thoughts will be on the gold/silver mining complex, gold/silver, commodity complex (DJP ETF tracks the CCI/CRB index), long bonds and volatility. In a nut shell; get long the aforementioned asset classes going into the home stretch of the year.

Gold/Silver and the Shares:




. These asset classes I prefer to accumulate using the dips in core accounts. The rallies and dips can be traded for sure; but with the noise in the daily movement in the gold market has we transition from bear to bull can be daunting and confusing. Keep your eye on the prize.


The Long Bond: Do you really think the Fed can raise rates? GTFO; I don't think they can or will; neither does the Bond market.

Volatility; Art Cashin warned that low volume melt up summers going into September do not favor the bulls. Volatility is going to pick up IMO has the real money comes back from their summer vacations. Combined with the low volume ramp; we have a slew of geopolitical scenarios that can ignite at any time. A small position in Vol is a pretty good idea to protect core accounts.

(Got long Vol at the red circle)



Nasdaq/S+P : Eyeing possible topping formations that may lead to..dare I say...a correction greater than 6%! Heaven forbid. 

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Buy the bloody Dips

Not in the broad indices though.

I'm going to keep posting examples like this fine specimen. The market is going to have no choice but to move these loathed stocks higher if companies keep pushing down costs and gold stays flat/up. This is what we seen over the past few quarters. Then once gold finally breaches 1400 and people aren't so afraid anymore of the constant taunt of lower prices from the some of the big banks, you're going to see these stocks climbing fast out of a deep dark 2+ year bear market.