Feature Stock of the Week (GTAT)

The fundamentals tell the story, the charts and technicals help tell it.

This post on GTAT will be purely technical. (comments on the charts). Enjoy.

 Starting out with the Monthly lense:

Daily:

Weekly:

Monitoring Developments

This weekends post will focus mostly on the usual, gold and gold stocks.

Other notes that are not on the chart above are that I'm watching are:

- the fact that Friday's power close brought us also above the 50SMA (a highly watched moving average).
-Monthly indicators are all in buy signals.
-Above the 3 monthly EMA's I use.
- The last time we had a move higher, it was stair stepping, which was then returned by the bear with the elevator down. This time I'm noting different bull patterns; aligned with where the monthly indicators are positioned....is this time different? Will we break and close over that march high and run the 55. I think so.



It doesn't surprise me that the negative short term technical are being ignored and seeing dip buying show up when you'd least expect it. To me, this shows that smart money has eyes on the longer term big picture for this depressed and left for dead sector.

I will do my monthly review as we turn the calendar into August next weekend. For now, we have a big data dump next week.


Here's an opposite view point of mine for comparison:

http://thedailygold.com/weakness-ahead-miners/

Looks like he did his charting prematurely on Friday based on the candles shown on his charts. We'll see who is right. I could see my bull flag making one more leg down, which is why I am monitoring this development closely.

nine teen seventy somethang

Funny how that song would come on as I'm reviewing some charts. (Reference to 70s correlation):

(Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick sent King World News four incredibly important charts)

Then you have the ratio of gold stocks to gold. You want to own miners when this ratio is outperforming. Today's close was nice to see the dip being bought into Friday and into big gains in the broad market. 

Steady F***ing Eddy

Steady Eddy; for any new readers; is the 30 weak moving average. A few weeks ago we had a fake break below it and a break back above on the big 3% day which I tweeted about as we crossed 1285. Anywho; the second chart is the Gold to Silver ratio. My two beliefs are this; we won't get the sustained rally I'm waiting for until gold is over 1400 and the gold to silver ratio is in a confirmed down trend. (i.e. Silver outperforming gold).  We are getting there. I'm an aggressive trader; so I'll take the risk of entering set ups and trades before the trend is confirmed. Stop losses and position sizing are ESSENTIAL as an aggressive trader. 

And just remember, the bigger picture is suggesting much higher prices; so to see the reversal and dip buying action shouldn't come as a shock. I did book some gains and am going to be re-entering in larger size going forward. 

Check the prior posts for the longer picture, to lazy to post the hyperlinks on this one. 

Alright, enough of the miners/gold.

The short on the Biotechs has been playing out exceptionally well.

Everything needed for further downside is in place by what I see. I used today's morning random fucking bounce back to fill the down gap to add to my short.

When what I see goes how I see, I never have enough money or size on. #Trading #Patience

We should revisit the QQQ's and the Spoos. But I know where they are going, and it's down. I just can't even imagine what foolish dip buying could happen with those two. So for now, i'll just monitor day by day to see what kind of levels we can crack through.

Taking advantage of others fears and scooped some vol products in the premarket today. Turned out I timed that well.

Stay tuned for more, expecting more risk off tomorrow.

Caution Warranted

As long as gold is below 1400, I continue to believe there will not be a sustained move in the miners. The rallies and dips will be worthy of trading.

Buy the dips, be patient. After a nice run up in the miners, a 50% retracement of recent gains is not out of the ordinary.


I'm long BIS in the meantime (IBB inverse). Yellen has given me a boost to the downside. Watching some set ups and patterns right now. If and when 250 breaks in IBB, I have targets on the charts where the fan lines meet the fib lines which meet the moving averages. 247, 243, 236. .. 236 is my ultimate target; it would end up being where a confluence of HSR, fib lines, fan lines and moving averages all line up together. (i.e. where the most liquidity will be).

Scroll down and read some of the prior posts.

The strength in the miners/precious metals isn't a shock.

Reminder from my first missives from April.

Reminder for R2K from April

Happy 4th of July

A chart to ponder as Arthur blows through the North East.

Just because I'm bearish doesn't mean I don't love our country. Proud to be an American. Stock market and the country we live in don't need to go hand and hand. A major correction or stock market crash won't stop our country from being the best it can be. That's what people need to understand when stocks crash or correct. It's not the end of the world, life goes on! Corrections/crashes will lead to evolution in other industries or sectors of the economy and our daily lives.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!

Focus Stock of the week (SLW)

This is just a daily view of SLW. If we see a push over 27 this stock has legs for days.

I'll add a bit more to this post from different time views as we go.