Monitoring Developments

Nasdaq correction in progress. Or Bubble popping? Stay Tuned

88 Failed nicely last week; however we left a tiny gap between 87 and 87.50 which should be filled fairly quickly given the two POMO days Today and Tomorrow with a POMO free day on Month end. I'd like to see that gap get filled sooner then later so we can resume my view of the trend. Again; don't see much of any new directional movement until we are over 88 or below 83. Will the "Sell in May and go Away" adage adhere this year?

Monitoring Developments

The level I was watching from this tweet^ on Feb 7th was well defended this time...on the other side.

Spoos

And just as a reminder.....

Format Changes

Appears that I'm doing this blog posting wrong.

Going forward I'll add new posts but keep same titles of what I cover.

-monitoring developments (precious metals and macro trends)

-Nasdaq ( QQQ trading and levels)

-SPY

-FUTURES ( SPOOS)

-R2K and bigger picture predictions

-Riddle Me This (data and charts on putting pieces of puzzle together)

Keep a look out!

Riddle Me This

The next series of charts shows a few different comparisons between gold, fed deposits held at depository institutions, and inventories held at comex vs. price. As well a silver vs. inventories. Have a look for yourselves....October of 2012- December 2013 rumors than official announcement of Bundsebank requesting gold from Fed.

(and Prior before that in smaller amounts Hugo Shavez requested his gold back as well in August of that same year)

This next chart is from the Federal Reserve Website:

Presented with no comment:

Fed deposits at depository institutions vs. Gold...So what happened in late 2012?!?!?!

Fed deposits at depository institutions vs. SPX (Not log scale,not sure how to get that on BBG).

Gold vs. Comex Inventories

The stranger one; silver vs. silver inventories ...So what gives here; silver got whacked on the coattails  of all of this. I believe the next major determinants of new bull market will be supply/demand driven as opposed to the QE 1,2, operation twist, then we split off during QE3 inflation psyche that took hold.

Financials

4/19/14:

4/11/14:
Kicking off a thread on Financials; I'll start with the big picture and leave it that for now until we move in one direction of the other; See below.

Spoos

4/16/14: Technical issues on my platform with data from the exchange for ESM14; but we kissed the 100 EMA +/- 10 cents over a very very very brief time frame; and then it was game on as they lifted up to a massive 55+ pts in a matter of 3 days. And as of now; if you look below; we are trading above the yellow moving average as well (30dma). So all is good in the world of SPOOS; but, in my opinion; I don't trust the SPOOS. Great trading tool; don't trust em.


4/11/14: It looks like we are going to shoot the downside target of the 100EMA.  Will BTFD'ers prevail? If they step in and buy the dip; I believe they will be trapped again and the continued waves down will be aggressive.

Posted with little comment; just to kick off the viewpoint I've had on the Spoos:

Everyone Loves the SPY

"Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future."

-William Gann

THE LONG VIEW: 4/10/14: Enjoy.

Predictions for the remainder of the year

         Predictions are different than trading; here's my worst case possibility for a "crash" "correction" or whatever you want to call it. The Russell is going to shed another 20-25% and overshoot a moving average to fill a gap that was created 1/31/13. If this comes to fruition; then the tape i've been watching and the the patterns i've been seeing; will have definitely been controlled selling; allowing the big boys enough time to unload. As well as a lot of other outlying indicators; margin debt; corporate buy backs and insider selling, will have proven to be legitimate indicators for those with patience and the ability to deviate from the heard.

               There is a solid chance that the loud roars from the bulls for april to be a stellar month for stocks; will come back to bite them in the ass and cause a dramatic april reversal. I think we could see another 3.5% come off in the Month of April on the Russell. Bringing April to a close with a -5% MTD return.

Margin Debt vs. S+P 500

A picture is worth a thousand words. 

This chart depicts the level of margin debt (blue shaded) vs. the S+P 500 (yellow line)

Thank the Federal Reserve and Richard Nixon for getting us into these predicaments in the first place.

Does Volume Matter?

4/16/14: Volume on the QQQ's.

And the answer is...yes...volume matters....will post charts over weekend.

....Obviously volume matters; when stocks get tickled up by overnight low volume algorithms in the futures market; it is essential to track volume. I'll do a post on futures later; for now; let's have a quick look at the update with volume before we delve into the week ahead. No volume for 6 days as we rise; suckers; AKA muppets; buy rising prices while large institutions sell to them; then they begin the dump for best price execution. They are professionals for a reason. I'll be posting my thoughts for the week ahead. Feel free to comment below.

Let's find out over the next session or two in the SPY...

As well as the Q's; volume increasing as we go down and decreasing as we go up. Controlled selling? Panic buying? You can trade these swings; but from a longer term view; you gotta scratch your head and wonder; does volume matter?

and EWJ...