Nasdaq correction in progress. Or Bubble popping? Stay Tuned

4/24/14: 

QQQ's rejected 88 all day; except the expected dump on the open on huge volume; given yesterdays VWAP (volume weighted average price) was at 87. So we dumped right down to 87; over shot a bit and then closed the first hour over 87; and then the rest of the day was damage control for the bulls clinging on to the tiny POMO. Till tomorrow. Mich Sentiment at 9:55 should add a bit of fun.

4/23/14: 

With Apple's earnings call this evening; the QQQ's post market kissed 88 on the dot (88.02; the low of  10:30AM on 4/4/14); but you get the point; the move has been made up to 88. Now its up to the cash market to determine where we go from here.  After hearing David Eihorn making his statement of the tech bubble and after hearing all the other analysts out there jabbering and my blog speaking of Nasdaq correction/bubble popping from some signs at the beginning of the month; my thoughts agree with both. You have the crap tech companies going IPO with negative earnings; which is a lot of them at ridiculous valuations. On the other hand; you have the king pin tech names like MSFT, APPL, GOOG that are great companies and the other bellwether out there; IBM, etc. Remember the good guys in the bad times.

4/17/14:

  "4/12/14: Bringing up this chart again because we are below the 30 week and my targets are coming up quick at 83. There is a great deal of confluence at of all sorts of moving averages across various time horizons; I'll be very surprised if we don't get a pause at 83"

At this point; you gotta go back to the beginning of this thread and follow up to the top; 86.37 was the close on the big volume down day from 4/5. We rejected that level on the low volume ramp-a-thon during the holiday week. There are negative divergences all over the place on the charts; but they could continue. We might see a further squeeze up to low 88's to the top of a possible head and shoulders neckline stemming from the end of December when the markets had an eery toppy feeling. The symmetry of the shoulders would fall into place with seasonality as well; 'sell in may, go away'. Along with the statistics for strong April's, then the case is built for a rise to the low 88's. 

  

Conclusion: Sitting tight until either over 88 or below 83 on solid volume. Hard to imagine your going to see solid volume on the upside at this juncture given muppets won't have that kind of strength to create it and the charts I've seen going around of the 'smart money flow' index vs the S+P. Then you've gotta imagine the volume will continue to show up on the downside like it has the past few months or so.

4/16/14

Epic short covering; 

Is the 3rd time a charm? I doubt it; not a low volume holiday week; MAYBE Monday; but if you look out on the economic calendar we don't have much in store to be a catalyst here for the machines to get wind of, we do have options expiry Thursday(Friday is Holiday) into Monday which will be a liquidity event creating volume. This all falls into place on the charts; they always tell a story of what's going on; it's just a matter of putting the pieces together. So we know we'll be seeing volume soon so this magenta line makes it all that more important. As prices decline; we've seen good volume to the downside; so let's pay close attention and act accordingly.

  

4/15/14

4/12/14: Bringing up this chart again because we are below the 30 week and my targets are coming up quick at 83. There is a great deal of confluence at of all sorts of moving averages across various time horizons; I'll be very surprised if we don't get a pause at 83.  That's just about 1% or so from where are; so more then likely we get there sooner then later.

4/10/14:

.Nothing new to see here, just the QQQ trending down retesting the moving avearge.

cruised right through the 10 oclock high and into the HSR from yesterday and it was game on back to the liquidity levels of the magenta moving average. Let's see

4/8/14:

4/7/14: DOH!

4/6/14: Watch alert on QQQ; will post thoughts soon next week as we watch for follow through.

4/5/14:

Comments on the chart:

Well that was spot on; i'll be posting my updates on the Q's later this weekend; for now; it's safe to assume the correction is in progress with confirmed volume. 

4/2/14:

OR NOT; at least in the short term; let's see how today's Manic Monday April 1st changed the weekly;

Well, let's just say, follow through tomorrow will be a blessing for all the momentum bulls charging this Fed Liquidity Asset Bubble higher.

Check back at end of week for updates on the Q's. 

Weekly

Lost the RSI trend line, Stokes crossed, MACD crossed. Diverging MACD histograms occurring on weekly bars is a strong signal.  From the 90 print to the target zone of 80 is roughly 10%. We'll stick with this for now and revisit if we lose the 55EMA.

Daily

Hourly

Dude where's my money?!

Introducing the all mighty king dollar; without further adieu:



In the interim; the dollar could bounce a little. I don't see it getting to much of a bid though flow from quarter end. Equities didn't have a stellar quarter so I don't see much re-balancing to keep portfolios at proper allocations.  (for example; a really easy trade on the FX floor is to front run the last business day's 11AM fix if US equities have had a really strong quarter, or month for that matter as money managers re-balance back to mandated % allocations). So going into the end of this quarter; I don't see a big bounce for the USD on Monday.

USD becoming stronger would require US Macro data points to beat estimates and jobs growth to pick up steam. If you see these items improving; then you'll see it in the USD.

Let's watch the rising trend line with diverging MACD histograms over next couple days for new short term direction of DX.

4/9/14:

Monitoring Developments

4/24/14: Silver update as we approached the 200EMA as depicted in a below post. Let's look at the action up close as we approached it this morning during thin trading.

4/9/14

More big picture viewpoints:

Which is interesting because Silvers 200EMA seems to have been it's support during all of this:

4/3/14

Rounded bottom update; graphically.

April 2nd; 2014: Rick Rule explains the current environment best; I suggest reading his interview. Most people shun me because i'm a bearish on the broad market and don't believe a god damn word coming out of the central bank mouth pieces all over the world; but IDGAF. I'm sticking to my views and theories in this market because nothing fundamentally has changed since I was introduced.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/2_Rule_-_Anti-Gold_Investors_Will_Be_Destroyed_Before_This_Is_Over.html

As the roars and ridicule grow louder and louder from the heard at all the last few bears remaining; it only solidifies the euphoria phase of the market. I recently saw some data pulled on the history of money market funds and AUM. Money market funds are currently at a historic all time low; so anyone who says cash is on the sidelines; is ignorant to the facts. I'll try and search for the data and post it here later.

April 2014

(Disclosure; I don’t edit these documents; I say what I feel when I’m writing them and put it all out there for you to see the mindset where I come from) #candid

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/3/14_Billionaire_Sprott_Looking_To_Sue_Banks_For_Gold_Manipulation.html

^^Highly recommended read.

The larger picture is of course; the double bottom, it’s being looked at and discussed amongst many major institutional banks and their head technicians have sent out updates and targets that have been inline since mine off the 12/31/13 low. This is why the 1433 level will be so critical; lots of eyes on this because the target of the double bottom will be 1686 which puts us on a path through a lot of key breakdown and now resistance levels; there’s a serious of weekly moving averages (44week, 50week, etc etc) that all fall in that area of 1550-1686. So I don’t expect this to be a straight shot up there.

We made it up just shy of 1400 with the help of geopolitical events and then came back briskly to dance around the prior launch pad of 1300. Gold took the stairs up (literally as we’ve seen since I started writing these) and then the elevator down; literally.  The next two charts are having a look at the position of the slow stochastic and comparison of daily and weekly positions.

The Daily

 The Weekly with Daily noted by vertical lines

The Long Game: Seasonality could come into play; the white vertical line annotated on this chart is the end of the next quarter; which would put us at June-July before we can get another strong upside move off the rising parallel line. Accumulate is the game here; Rick Rules advice: use the volatility don't let it use you.  We are looking at a 200$ move in gold once we breach 1400. My year end target for gold is 1550. (Subject to change LOL) Check the blog for updates.

Now that we have the big picture reviewed again; lets move on to some trading tactics in the interim while we let our longs mature. Now I am going to point out a few observations that I have been monitoring with some supporting back up in the price that will be closely watched. The same chart I’m about to show you is happening on a few key indices. GDX (producers), GDXJ(juniors). $HUI  (Gold bugs index).